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Source-backed business rule changes across Southern California

LA Politics

The Los Angeles mayoral election, the policies candidates propose, and what City Hall can actually do. Campaign statements are attributed; proposals are not current rules. Coverage checked October 29, 2026.

LA mayoral polls

Published survey observations, not daily estimates or chances of winning. No values are filled in between polls and no polling average is calculated.

Published observations checked against the sources below.

Source check: . A source check is not a new survey.

Berkeley IGS Poll · Oct 25, 2026 · Latest in this collection

Berkeley IGS Poll

Fieldwork Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. Released Oct 28, 2026.

Likely City of Los Angeles voters, including people who had already voted (unweighted sample); n = 2,197. Sponsor: Los Angeles Times / Berkeley IGS Poll.

Reported or intended vote for Los Angeles mayor, combining already-voted and not-yet-voted respondents.

  • Karen Bass40%
  • Nithya Raman40%
  • Undecided / blank / refused / do not recall19%
Method and source notes
Mode
Online, English and Spanish, according to co-sponsor reporting. Full survey-specific recruitment and weighting memo not located.
Uncertainty
Approximately ±3 percentage points, as reported by the co-sponsor; not a confidence interval for the difference between candidates. Full methodology limitations remain.
  • The residual 19% combines 17% undecided among people not yet voting with 2% already-voted respondents who left the race blank, refused or did not recall.
  • Rounded percentages sum to 99%. Values are reproduced as published; no missing percentage point is assigned.
  • This is a selected set of verified surveys, not a complete census of all polling. Survey support is not a probability of winning.

Original tabulations, Table 1 Q21A/Q21B · Co-sponsor report: field dates and methodology context

Manhattan Institute survey · Oct 1, 2026 · Earlier survey

Manhattan Institute survey

Fieldwork Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 1, 2026. Released Oct 9, 2026.

Likely City of Los Angeles voters; separate city sample; n = 449. Sponsor: Manhattan Institute, a policy think tank.

Initial mayoral ballot question, before unsure respondents were prompted to choose a candidate.

  • Karen Bass32%
  • Nithya Raman38%
  • Unsure30%
Method and source notes
Mode
142 live cell-phone interviews, 227 SMS-to-web interviews and 80 online-panel interviews. Separately weighted city sample.
Uncertainty
±4.6 percentage points as reported by the sponsor. Other survey errors are not captured by this number.
  • Only the initial ballot question is charted. The same survey also published results including leaners; those are not a second poll.
  • Sponsor and questionnaire differ from Berkeley IGS. Do not treat differences between these surveys as a daily trend.

Original LA toplines, page 4 · Sponsor methodology and field dates

Berkeley IGS Poll · Sep 20, 2026 · Earlier survey

Berkeley IGS Poll

Fieldwork Sep 15, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026. Released Sep 23, 2026.

Likely City of Los Angeles voters (unweighted sample); n = 2,150. Sponsor: Los Angeles Times / Berkeley IGS Poll.

Intended vote for Los Angeles mayor if the election were held at the time of the survey.

  • Karen Bass28%
  • Nithya Raman39%
  • Undecided33%
Method and source notes
Mode
Online, English and Spanish, according to co-sponsor reporting. Full survey-specific recruitment and weighting memo not located.
Uncertainty
Approximately ±3 percentage points, as reported by the co-sponsor. Full methodology limitations remain.
  • The October questionnaire also includes people who had already voted and distinguishes blank/refused responses. The residual categories are not identical.
  • Separate fieldwork periods are shown as observations; no intermediate daily values are estimated.

Original tabulations, Table 1 Q17 · Co-sponsor report: release and methodology context